Sunday, January 16, 2011

Eclipse Award predictions

While camped out on my couch watching the Golden Globes, I'm taking one last chance to review the credentials of the 2010 Eclipse Award finalists. Although I'm quite tickled that Glee has walked off with a handful of Golden Globes thus far - trust me, I'm much more eagerly anticipating the distribution of the Eclipse statuettes tomorrow night. Here's a brief summary of who I believe will win each category - as well as who I think ought to win. Full disclosure - I do not have an Eclipse vote.

Champion 2-year-old male

Will win: Uncle Mo

Should win: Uncle Mo.

This colt's brief but perfect 3-for-3 campaign has left many feeling excited about his chances to move on to the 2011 Triple Crown series. He began his season with a tour de force in a maiden at Saratoga before ending the year with back-to-back Grade I wins, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.


Champion 2-year-old female

Will win: Awesome Feather

Should win: Awesome Feather

In a division where no filly was able to establish dominance by winning more than one Grade I event, and a few of those dropped out with injuries prior to the Breeders' Cup, whoever defeated a deep Juvenile Fillies field would walk away with the award. Awesome Feather - although she faced softer competition than R Heat Lightning did in the summer and fall - delivered.


Champion 3-year-old male

Will win: Lookin At Lucky

Should win: Lookin At Lucky

Were it not for some horrible racing luck (pardon the pun), he could have won two additional Grade Is this year - as it was, took the Preakness and Haskell with gritty performances. Established himself as best main-track runner of his generation, and likely to become the first since Spectacular Bid to be a champion at both 2 and 3.


Champion 3-year-old female

Will win: Blind Luck

Should win: Blind Luck

Took several trips cross-country to dance every dance, faced the best of her division and every top older female whose name didn't begin with a Z. It says something that she's head and shoulders above a top division - fellow finalists Havre de Grace and Evening Jewel will both be back next year.


Champion older male

Will win: Blame

Should win: Blame

Not much to argue here off his Classic win and his defeat of chief rival Quality Road in the Whitney.


Champion older female

Will win: Zenyatta

Should win: Zenyatta

Life At Ten won all but two starts in 2010 (one being the Ladies Classic debacle), including two Grade Is, and Unrivaled Belle won the Ladies Classic and defeated a reigning Horse of the Year. Bad luck for both to compete in this generation, as Zenyatta will go home with her third straight divisional title.


Champion turf male

Will win: Winchester

Should win: Gio Ponti

Gio Ponti's stablemate Winchester won two Grade Is, defeated Gio Ponti the only time they met, and undertook an ambitious trip to Hong Kong even after the Breeders' Cup. But I give the edge to the defending divisional champion, who began his year with a solid fourth in Dubai, came home to win two Grade Is with a few close beats, and finished up with a runner-up effort behind Goldikova in the Mile.


Champion turf female

Will win: Goldikova

Should win: Proviso

Goldikova is, without a doubt, one of the best turf racemares of all time, and defeated a top-class field that included Proviso in the Mile. But I've never been a fan of giving Eclipse Awards to European imports who make one start in America. Those are the current rules, and under that system, Goldikova will rightly win. But looking strictly at American milers, Proviso won four consecutive Grade Is, and defeated males in the Kilroe Mile.


Champion male sprinter

Will win: Majesticperfection

Should win: Big Drama

Voters seem to be remembering Majesticperfection's string of five straight wins that culminated in his dazzling win in the Vanderbilt in August. But that was his only graded start, and he was retired by Labor Day. Big Drama finished second in a pair of Grade Is at Saratoga in the summer and ended his year with a Breeders' Cup Sprint win. Hope this tough horse isn't underappreciated yet again.


Champion female sprinter

Will win: Dubai Majesty

Should win: Dubai Majesty

Multiple graded winner and Grade I placed runner broke through with a victory in the Filly and Mare Sprint over all of her serious rivals for the award. In a year when no one dominated the division, the race matters.


Champion trainer

Will win: John Shirreffs

Should win: Todd Pletcher

Shirreffs will finally and probably rightfully be recognized for his incredible patience and wonderful job with Zenyatta. But that's a lifetime achievement award. Pletcher enjoyed a sensational year, winning several training titles - including Saratoga - taking his first Kentucky Derby, winning three of four juvenile races at the Breeders' Cup, training a likely champion in Uncle Mo and handling four other Eclipse finalists.


Champion owner

Will win: Jerry and Ann Moss

Should win: Jerry and Ann Moss

Handful of stakes winners highlighted by Zenyatta; more importantly, they showed incredible sportsmanship by bringing their champion back another year, and have proven wonderful stewards of their animals by advocating racehorse retirement. this is the category where those attributes should be rewarded. Close runner-up in this category is WinStar Farm, for campaigning two individual Triple Crown event winners.


Champion breeder

Will win: Adena Springs

Should win: Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider

Claiborne celebrated its centennial this year, and campaigned homebred Blame in conjunction with Dilschneider. A nod to history.


Champion jockey

Will win: Garrett Gomez

Should win: Garrett Gomez

Ramon Dominguez dominated the toughest jockey colony in the country yet again, and gets my award for ride of the year aboard Haynesfield in the Gold Cup. But Garrett Gomez riding three Breeders' Cup winners - including Blame - less than 48 hours after a terrible spill that strongly impacted his riding ability has to be one of the greatest athletic feats ever.


Horse of the Year

Will win: Zenyatta

Should win: Blame

Zenyatta, who pushed her record to an amazing 19-0 before falling barely short of Blame in the Classic, will finally be granted horse racing's highest honor for her incredible run. She'll be recognized for the achievement of her incredible career, as well as for all the positive attention she has brought to the sport. And I'm OK with that. But in the strictest sense - Horse of the Year is about accomplishment during the calendar year. Blame put together a cut and dried championship campaign. He won three Grade Is, defeating the best older male in Quality Road, the best older female in Zenyatta and the best 3-year-old in Lookin At Lucky. He ran in some of the most prestigious races in the country, defeating top-class competition each time. Any other year, his campaign would win without question. But this isn't any other year. Whoever's name is in the envelope tomorrow night - I salute them, because they're deserving; and I'll toast the loser, because it's a shame they have to lose. Two incredible candidates.

1 Comments:

Blogger Unknown said...

i agree with your HOY analysis 100%...Blame ran the more ambitious campaign and he WON the BC classic.....Zenyatta got horse of the year because of her story which is good for horse racing. But, if i were Blames connections i would be disappointed with the voters.

January 19, 2011 at 8:56 AM 

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