Sunday, January 16, 2011

Eclipse Award predictions

While camped out on my couch watching the Golden Globes, I'm taking one last chance to review the credentials of the 2010 Eclipse Award finalists. Although I'm quite tickled that Glee has walked off with a handful of Golden Globes thus far - trust me, I'm much more eagerly anticipating the distribution of the Eclipse statuettes tomorrow night. Here's a brief summary of who I believe will win each category - as well as who I think ought to win. Full disclosure - I do not have an Eclipse vote.

Champion 2-year-old male

Will win: Uncle Mo

Should win: Uncle Mo.

This colt's brief but perfect 3-for-3 campaign has left many feeling excited about his chances to move on to the 2011 Triple Crown series. He began his season with a tour de force in a maiden at Saratoga before ending the year with back-to-back Grade I wins, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.


Champion 2-year-old female

Will win: Awesome Feather

Should win: Awesome Feather

In a division where no filly was able to establish dominance by winning more than one Grade I event, and a few of those dropped out with injuries prior to the Breeders' Cup, whoever defeated a deep Juvenile Fillies field would walk away with the award. Awesome Feather - although she faced softer competition than R Heat Lightning did in the summer and fall - delivered.


Champion 3-year-old male

Will win: Lookin At Lucky

Should win: Lookin At Lucky

Were it not for some horrible racing luck (pardon the pun), he could have won two additional Grade Is this year - as it was, took the Preakness and Haskell with gritty performances. Established himself as best main-track runner of his generation, and likely to become the first since Spectacular Bid to be a champion at both 2 and 3.


Champion 3-year-old female

Will win: Blind Luck

Should win: Blind Luck

Took several trips cross-country to dance every dance, faced the best of her division and every top older female whose name didn't begin with a Z. It says something that she's head and shoulders above a top division - fellow finalists Havre de Grace and Evening Jewel will both be back next year.


Champion older male

Will win: Blame

Should win: Blame

Not much to argue here off his Classic win and his defeat of chief rival Quality Road in the Whitney.


Champion older female

Will win: Zenyatta

Should win: Zenyatta

Life At Ten won all but two starts in 2010 (one being the Ladies Classic debacle), including two Grade Is, and Unrivaled Belle won the Ladies Classic and defeated a reigning Horse of the Year. Bad luck for both to compete in this generation, as Zenyatta will go home with her third straight divisional title.


Champion turf male

Will win: Winchester

Should win: Gio Ponti

Gio Ponti's stablemate Winchester won two Grade Is, defeated Gio Ponti the only time they met, and undertook an ambitious trip to Hong Kong even after the Breeders' Cup. But I give the edge to the defending divisional champion, who began his year with a solid fourth in Dubai, came home to win two Grade Is with a few close beats, and finished up with a runner-up effort behind Goldikova in the Mile.


Champion turf female

Will win: Goldikova

Should win: Proviso

Goldikova is, without a doubt, one of the best turf racemares of all time, and defeated a top-class field that included Proviso in the Mile. But I've never been a fan of giving Eclipse Awards to European imports who make one start in America. Those are the current rules, and under that system, Goldikova will rightly win. But looking strictly at American milers, Proviso won four consecutive Grade Is, and defeated males in the Kilroe Mile.


Champion male sprinter

Will win: Majesticperfection

Should win: Big Drama

Voters seem to be remembering Majesticperfection's string of five straight wins that culminated in his dazzling win in the Vanderbilt in August. But that was his only graded start, and he was retired by Labor Day. Big Drama finished second in a pair of Grade Is at Saratoga in the summer and ended his year with a Breeders' Cup Sprint win. Hope this tough horse isn't underappreciated yet again.


Champion female sprinter

Will win: Dubai Majesty

Should win: Dubai Majesty

Multiple graded winner and Grade I placed runner broke through with a victory in the Filly and Mare Sprint over all of her serious rivals for the award. In a year when no one dominated the division, the race matters.


Champion trainer

Will win: John Shirreffs

Should win: Todd Pletcher

Shirreffs will finally and probably rightfully be recognized for his incredible patience and wonderful job with Zenyatta. But that's a lifetime achievement award. Pletcher enjoyed a sensational year, winning several training titles - including Saratoga - taking his first Kentucky Derby, winning three of four juvenile races at the Breeders' Cup, training a likely champion in Uncle Mo and handling four other Eclipse finalists.


Champion owner

Will win: Jerry and Ann Moss

Should win: Jerry and Ann Moss

Handful of stakes winners highlighted by Zenyatta; more importantly, they showed incredible sportsmanship by bringing their champion back another year, and have proven wonderful stewards of their animals by advocating racehorse retirement. this is the category where those attributes should be rewarded. Close runner-up in this category is WinStar Farm, for campaigning two individual Triple Crown event winners.


Champion breeder

Will win: Adena Springs

Should win: Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider

Claiborne celebrated its centennial this year, and campaigned homebred Blame in conjunction with Dilschneider. A nod to history.


Champion jockey

Will win: Garrett Gomez

Should win: Garrett Gomez

Ramon Dominguez dominated the toughest jockey colony in the country yet again, and gets my award for ride of the year aboard Haynesfield in the Gold Cup. But Garrett Gomez riding three Breeders' Cup winners - including Blame - less than 48 hours after a terrible spill that strongly impacted his riding ability has to be one of the greatest athletic feats ever.


Horse of the Year

Will win: Zenyatta

Should win: Blame

Zenyatta, who pushed her record to an amazing 19-0 before falling barely short of Blame in the Classic, will finally be granted horse racing's highest honor for her incredible run. She'll be recognized for the achievement of her incredible career, as well as for all the positive attention she has brought to the sport. And I'm OK with that. But in the strictest sense - Horse of the Year is about accomplishment during the calendar year. Blame put together a cut and dried championship campaign. He won three Grade Is, defeating the best older male in Quality Road, the best older female in Zenyatta and the best 3-year-old in Lookin At Lucky. He ran in some of the most prestigious races in the country, defeating top-class competition each time. Any other year, his campaign would win without question. But this isn't any other year. Whoever's name is in the envelope tomorrow night - I salute them, because they're deserving; and I'll toast the loser, because it's a shame they have to lose. Two incredible candidates.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Awesome Feather sidelined

The undefeated filly Awesome Feather, who is virtually certain to be named an Eclipse Award champion on Monday, has been sidelined by a tendon issue.

The filly was purchased for $2.3 million by Frank Stronach at Fasig-Tipton two days after her season-ending victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Stronach transferred his new runner to Mechanicville native Chad Brown, who said the filly's tendon trouble began shortly after she arrived at his Palm Meadows barn.

Awesome Feather hasn't returned to the track since her Breeders' Cup win. She's currently walking and undergoing therapy.

Although Brown didn't completely rule it out, it seems unlikely Awesome Feather will run this spring. Her status for the Kentucky Oaks, a race she was the winter-book favorite for, is certainly in jeopardy.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Tapitsfly returns

Tapitsfly, a Breeders' Cup winner who first emerged on the scene at Saratoga, will make her first start in over 14 months when she goes postward in an allowance/optional event on the Gulfstream turf Wednesday afternoon.

The gray daughter of Tapit, now 4, broke her maiden at fourth asking in August 2009 at the Spa. She followed up with a dominant victory in the P.G. Johnson Stakes here on the turf. After running second in the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont, she earned a hard-fought win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. A series of minor injuries have kept her sidelined for over a year, however.

Julien Leparoux will be aboard Tapitsfly in Wednesday's race for trainer Dale Romance.

The filly's chief competition could be Miss World, winner of the Grade I Garden City in 2009 at Belmont. The 5-year-old is looking for her first win since.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Thoughts on the Eclipse finalists

The Eclipse Award finalists were released just a few days ago. With the revelation of the winners approaching, here are some quick thoughts on who made the top three as a finalist in each category.


--Who on Earth cast a vote for Goldikova for Horse of the Year? Although France's mighty mite - already the Cartier Horse of the Year in Europe - is doubtlessly one of the best horses in the world, there is no way a horse who made a single start in North America should be seriously considered for our biggest award over candidates like /blame and Zenyatta.


--Although he has no chance of beating Lookin At Lucky out for the title, it was nice to see Paddy O'Prado included in the finalists for champion 3-year-old male. It's refreshing to see some diversity in the vote, since typically that ballot reads like a who's who of Triple Crown contenders. But surely Paddy also deserved to be a finalist for champion turf male? Perhaps his connections spoiled his chances by choosing to run in the Classic over a fairly weak edition of the Turf - but you have to think he deserved a nod ahead of Dangerous Midge, who, again, made one start in this country.


--It's a shame Life At Ten and Unrivaled Belle raced in the same year as Zenyatta. These two finalists would be deserving winners of the older female award any other year. There has been some serious depth in the female divisions in recent history.


--It was nice to see the late Tuscan Evening included in the finalists for champion turf female. Although she hadn't yet faced the best of the division, she went 6-for-6 in 2010 before her untimely death. Have to think she was as good as any.


--It will be interesting to see which way the jockey vote goes - although Johnny Velazquez had his typical solid year, particularly at Saratoga, my money is on Ramon Dominguez or Garrett Gomez. Dominguez dominated the toughest jockey colony in the country, New York, all year, and gets my vote for ride of the year aboard Haynesfield in the Gold Cup. But Gomez returning to ride three Breeders' Cup winners - including Blame - less than 48 hours after a serious accident has to be one of the most memorable athletic feats of the year.


--Another interesting quandary in the trainer category. Todd Pletcher (won first Kentucky Derby, trained Uncle Mo) and Bob Baffert (trained 2000th winner, trained Lookin At Lucky) both reached milestones this year and also trained likely champions. John Shirreffs has less quantity, but you can't argue with quality, as he once again brilliantly managed Zenyatta. It's rare to see a horse still at the top of her game, let alone running up a nearly-unbeaten record, at age 6.


--It's surprising that Frederic Lenclud, one of the most down-to-earth and hard-working young riders in the game, was left out of the apprentice jockey finalists. Lenclud may have ridden fewer winners than his fellow finalists, but he knocked heads with the toughest competition all year, often finishing well in the rider standings against polishes journeymen. Quick - when's the last time an apprentice won a graded stake at Saratoga?