Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Pondering the handicap division without 'Lucky'

The weeks following the Breeders' Cup are always a little melancholy as we say goodbye to runners we've followed who are departing the racetrack to begin their careers in the breeding shed. Next year, we won't be seeing Blame or Quality Road, or, of course, Zenyatta (more reflections on her retirement and her place in racing history coming soon). However, the most startling and the most disappointing retirement announcement in the last week was the news that Lookin At Lucky will stand at Ashford Stud in 2011. Majority owner Mike Pegram revealed that he and co-owners Karl Watson and Paul Weitman have been in discussions with the Coolmore Stud group that owns Ashford for about four months, and the major racing and breeding empire finally offered a price they couldn't refuse.


Lookin At Lucky, last year's 2-year-old champion, is almost a lock to claim his second straight Eclipse Award after a campaign that includes victories in the Preakness and Haskell, as well as the Rebel and Indiana Derby. He finished a creditable fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic, beaten less than four lengths, in what would turn out to be his final start. The 3-year-old son of Smart Strike finished with a record of 13-9-1-1 and earnings of $3,307,278.


More than perhaps any other retiree of the past few weeks, Lookin At Lucky still has a world of upside on the racetrack. The colt was foaled on May 27, 2007. For racing purposes, all Thoroughbreds are considered a year older on Jan. 1, regardless of their actual date of birth. That means that when he won the Preakness, Lookin At Lucky hadn't even celebrated his third birthday yet (Derby winner Super Saver was a March foal). For comparison's sake, Blame, the Classic winner, is also a May foal; he began picking up stakes wins late in the summer of his 3-year-old season before turning into a monster the summer of this year.


Lookin At Lucky's pattern of development suggests that he could have continued to mature and be a major force as a 4-year-old. With the added months of age, and with major rivals already retired, the path seemed clear for the colt to return as an older horse and perhaps claim an incredible third straight Eclipse. In this case, it's truly a shame to see the economic reality of the sport rear its head - there's simply more money for owners in the breeding shed than on the racetrack, particularly with many tracks forced to cut racing days and slash stakes purses.


With Lookin At Lucky's retirement, the handicap division for 2011 seems to be coming up light. Belmont winner Drosselmeyer is still expected to return from injury but will be looking for just his fourth career win. First Dude is still looking for just his second win but is multiple Grade I-placed. Fly Down is also hoping to finally break through after finishing second in the Belmont and Travers and third in the Gold Cup and Classic; hopefully the colt, who was purchased by Saudi interests this fall, will remain in this country to compete. Trainer Al Stall hopes to fill Blame's big shoes with Apart, an improving colt; he'll run in the Clark against Dirt Mile runner-up Morning Line. New York-bred Haynesfield should be back, but has never won outside of his home state. Richard's Kid will return to run net year, but is starting his season in Dubai, meaning he won't make his American debut until the summer at the earliest.


Perhaps the most intriguing division for American-based older horses could be the male turf ranks. Dual Eclipse champion Gio Ponti is expected to return next year, along with Paddy O'Prado, a 3-year-old Grade I winner on the lawn.

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