Saturday, May 1, 2010

Kentucky Derby analysis

Here's a look at the field, in post position order with morning line odds. After checking out the horses, make sure you pick up your copy of today's paper to see who the Saratogian staff is picking in the Pink Sheet.


1. Lookin at Lucky (3-1)

Pedigree: By Smart Strike, out of Private Feeling, by Belong to Me. Of Belong To Me's three foals, two are stakes winners. The other is Kensei, winner of the Jim Dandy last summer at Saratoga.

Lifetime record: 8-6-1-1. Most recently, third in the Santa Anita Derby on April 3.

Pros: Owner of three Grade I wins in California is a remarkably consistent colt whose only losses come with excuses; he was still second after a poor trip in the BC Juvenile and third after an even worse trip in the Santa Anita Derby. Proved he could ship and win over dirt when he took the Rebel at Oaklawn two starts back. Has fired solid workouts over this track and can settle nicely off what is expected to be a hot early pace.

Cons: Has a tendency to find trouble even in small fields, which makes this 20-horse race a daunting prospect - especially when he drew the rail.

Connections: Bob Baffert, inducted into the Hall of Fame last summer in Saratoga, has three Derby wins. He and owner Mike Pegram, longtime friends, missed the Triple Crown by a nose with Real Quiet in 1998. Jockey Garrett Gomez, among the nation's leaders, would win his first Triple Crown race.

2. Ice Box (10-1)

Pedigree: Pulpit x Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat

Lifetime record: 7-3-0-0. Won the Florida Derby on March 20.

Pros: Improving with each start, this colt is one of the few deep closers in a race that's expected to have a hot early pace. He's trained strongly at Churchill Downs and fired a bullet work in the mud last week.

Cons: Coming off a six-week layoff since the Florida Derby and will need plenty of racing luck in a crowded field.

Connections: Hall of Famer Nick Zito has two Derby wins and starts two horses in this race, both owned by longtime client Robert LaPenta. Rider Jose Lezcano is looking for his first Derby win.


3. Noble's Promise (12-1)

Pedigree: Cuvee x The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick

Lifetime record: 8-3-3-1. Fifth in the Arkansas Derby on April 10.

Pros: Remarkably consistent colt won the Breeders' Futurity last fall at Keeneland and finished second to Lookin at Lucky twice in 2009. Has fired two strong works in a row at Churchill Downs.

Cons: Comes into this off the worst performance of his career and trainer Ken McPeek waited until earlier this week before announcing the colt was definitely in the field after he came out of that race with a lung issue and some superficial cuts on his legs. There are also questions about his distance limitations.

Connections: McPeek and jockey Willie Martinez are looking for their first Derby wins.


4. Super Saver (15-1)

Pedigree: Maria's Mon x Supercharger, by AP Indy. Super Saver comes from a family with incredible depth. He is a half brother to successful runner and sire Guided Missile; his second dam produced runners such as Accelerator, Daydreaming and Girolamo, as well as the dam of Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat. Super Saver's third dam, Dance Number, produced the sires Not For Love and Rhythm, as well as Oscillate, dam of sire Mutakddim. Dance Number is out of Numbered Account, champion filly in 1971 and eventually the dam of Private Account, sire of Personal Ensign. The line also traces back to Baby League, dam of the great Busher. Super Saver's sire, Maria's Mon, has already produced a Derby winner in Monarchos.

Lifetime record: 6-2-2-1. Second in the Arkansas Derby on April 10.

Pros: Scored a two-turn win at Churchill Downs last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The colt keeps Calvin Borel aboard, has a solid pedigree with some propensity to run on a wet track and has displayed heart in deep stretch in his last few races.

Cons: Speedy sort could falter in a race where he'll have plenty of company up front. There were also no real excuses for his Arkansas loss.

Connections: Borel has won two of the last three Derbies and is red hot at Churchill Downs over the first week of the meet. Trainer Todd Pletcher, famously 0-for-24 at the Derby, starts four horses this year.


5. Line of David (30-1)

Pedigree: Lion Heart x Emma's Dilemma, by Capote

Lifetime record: 6-3-0-1. Won Arkansas Derby on April 10.

Pros: Ran exactly like his sire, the 2004 Derby runner-up, in winning the Arkansas Derby, and that's not a bad thing. Chestnut colt whisked through brilliant early fractions then displayed heart in deep stretch to hold off challengers in his first start on conventional dirt.

Cons: Didn't move well or handle the wet track at all in his final work.

Connections: Trainer John Sadler starts two horses here and Rafael Bejarano, who rode Line of David to two of this three wins, regains the mount.


6. Stately Victor (30-1)

Pedigree: Ghostzapper x Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer. First Grade I winner for his sire, the 2004 Horse of the Year. Dam Collect the Cash won the Grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on the Keeneland turf.

Lifetime record: 8-2-1-0. Won the Blue Grass on April 10.

Pros: Second to Winslow Homer, who went on to win the Holy Bull, in a Saratoga maiden that was off the turf last summer and has also trained well over the wet track this week. Looked good making a sweeping move to win the Blue Grass and that running style could figure in this race.

Cons: Finished well back in two other dirt tries at Gulfstream and his only other career victory came on the turf.

Connections: One of Kentucky's leading trainers, Mike Maker, has two chances to win his first Derby. Alan Garcia, who took the Saratoga riding title and won the Belmont in 2008, is aboard. Co-owner Jack Conway is the Attorney General of Kentucky and is running for a Senate seat, meaning the month of May could be eventful for him - the primary is May 18.


7. American Lion (30-1)

Pedigree: Tiznow x Storm Tide, by Storm Cat

Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1. Won Illinois Derby on April 3.

Pros: Fairly consistent colt showed heart when turning back a foe in the stretch to win the Illinois Derby despite setting the pace.

Cons: American Lion couldn't beat most of the top 3-year-olds from California and the Illinois Derby was one of the weaker prep races this spring.

Connections: Trainer Eoin Harty, a former assistant to Baffert, is looking for his first solo win. Rider David Flores was aboard for the Illinois Derby win.


8. Dean's Kitten (50-1)

Pedigree: Kitten's Joy x Summer Theatre, by Ide

Lifetime record: 11-3-1-2. Won the Lane's End on March 27.

Pros: Has a solid running style and looked good rallying four wide to take the Lane's End. Picks up Robby Albarado in the saddle.

Cons: Has two wins on turf and one on synthetic. In his only try on dirt, he was soundly beaten.

Connections: Maker saddles this colt and Albarado picked up the mount earlier in the week when Endorsement came out.


9. Make Music For Me (50-1)

Pedigree: Bernstein x Miss Cheers, by Carson City

Lifetime record: 8-1-2-1. Sixth in the Blue Grass on April 10

Pros: Twice second and once third behind Lookin at Lucky in stakes company in California.

Cons: This will be his first try on dirt and his only career win came on the turf.

Connections: Joel Rosario finally gets a Derby mount after being bounced off both Homeboykris and Dean's Kitten. Alexis Barba would be the first woman to saddle a Derby winner.


10. Paddy O' Prado (20-1)

Pedigree: El Prado x Fun House, by Prized

Lifetime record: 6-1-2-2. Second in the Blue Grass on April 10.

Pros: Grade III winner and GI placed runner trained strongly over the mud at Churchill Downs and is bred to run all day.

Cons: His stakes win came on the turf and his Blue Grass placing was on synthetic.

Connections: Three-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux rides this colt, trained by a Kentucky mainstay in Dale Romans.


11. Devil May Care (10-1)

Pedigree: Malibu Moon x Kelli's Ransom, by Red Ransom. Kelli's Ransom was also the dam of a Derby starter last year in UAE Derby and Super Derby winner Regal Ransom.

Lifetime record: 5-3-0-0. Won the Bonnie Miss on March 20

Pros: Solid resume, with wins in the Frizette and Bonnie Miss, would have made her one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites. Has trained strongly and looks to still be improving from race to race.

Cons: A filly hasn't won the Kentucky Derby since Winning Colors in 1988. Devil May Care can still run greenly and act up in the post parade and starting gate, things that don't bode well in a 20-horse field in front of a rowdy crowd.

Connections: The only Triple Crown win for Pletcher and his go-to rider Johnny Velazquez came with a filly in the 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches.


12. Conveyance (12-1)

Pedigree: Indian Charlie x Emptythetill by Holy Bull

Lifetime record: 5-4-1-0. Second in the Sunland Park Derby on March 28

Pros: Once-beaten colt transferred his form from California to dirt very well, with a victory in the Southwest at Oaklawn two starts back.

Cons: His front-running style makes him vulnerable here.

Connections: Baffert gives Martin Garcia a leg up in his first Derby.


13. Jackson Bend (15-1)

Pedigree: Hear No Evil x Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

Lifetime record: 9-5-4-0. Second in the Wood Memorial on April 3

Pros: Ultra-consistent colt with a ton of heart and Hall of Fame connections has been second to Eskendereya in his last two races.

Cons: He hasn't won yet this season and could have distance limitations.

Connections: Mike Smith, a Hall of Famer who won the 2005 Derby with longshot Giacomo, teams up with Zito.


14. Mission Impazible (20-1)

Pedigree: Unbridled's Song x La Paz, by Hold Your Peace. A half-brother to stakes winner and sire Forest Camp.

Lifetime record: 5-2-1-2. Won the Louisiana Derby on March 27

Pros: Looked good winning the Louisiana Derby, making a three wide rally to get up for the win. Consistent colt also has a stakes placing at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old.

Cons: The Louisiana Derby was probably one of the weaker preps.

Connections: Rajiv Maragh has the call for Pletcher.


15. Discreetly Mine (30-1)

Pedigree: Mineshaft x Pretty Discreet, by Private Account. Pretty Discreet, winner of the Alabama, is the dam of Grade I winner Discreet Cat.

Lifetime record: 8-2-3-0. Fourth in the Louisiana Derby on March 27

Pros: Grade I-placed as a 2-year-old, Discreetly Mine finally broke through with a win in the Risen Star this spring.

Cons: Frontrunner could have distance limitations.

Connections: Javier Castellano has the call for Pletcher.


16. Awesome Act (10-1)

Pedigree: Awesome Again x Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector

Lifetime record: 8-2-2-2. Third in the Wood Memorial April 3.

Pros: This colt began his career on the turf in England and has been solid since moving to the dirt in New York, winning the Gotham and running third in the Wood. He had a legitimate excuse in that race, as he threw a shoe at the break.

Cons: The Gotham was probably one of the weaker prep races of the spring.

Connections: Trainer Jeremy Noseda was nearly stuck in England thanks to the clouds of volcanic ash generated by the eruption in Iceland, but he finally arrived in Louisville this week. French-born jockey Julien Leparoux won the Eclipse Award as the nation's top rider in 2009.


17. Dublin (12-1)

Pedigree: Afleet Alex x Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird. From the first crop of his sire, winner of the 2005 Preakness and Belmont. Classy Mirage was a multiple stakeswinner with her big win coming in the Ballerina; second dam First Mirage is the dam of Grade I winner Missy's Mirage; and third dam Gray Mirage was also a stakes winner.

Lifetime record: 8-2-1-2. Third in the Arkansas Derby on April 10

Pros: Winner of the Hopeful last year. Closed strongly to be second in the Southwest in February, then was third with decent efforts in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby.

Cons: Hasn't won yet this year and had no real excuses for the Arkansas Derby loss, hanging in the stretch.

Connections: Hall of Famer Wayne Lukas has won four Derbies - most recently in 1999 - and a win would make him second all-time. Terry Thompson rides.


18. Backtalk (50-1)

Pedigree: Smarty Jones x Apasionata Sonta, by Affirmed. Backtalk is the first Derby starter for his sire, the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. Apasionata Sonta also produced the multiple stakeswinning filly Bsharpsonata.

Lifetime record: 7-4-0-1. Third in the Illinois Derby on April 3

Pros: Winner of two stakes, the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs and the Sanford at Saratoga, as a 2-year-old.

Cons: Won his first three starts but is 1-for-4 since, with his only win coming against suspect competition. Was soundly beaten in the Illinois Derby, although he might have left his race in a bullet work earlier that week.

Connections: Trainer Tom Amoss, saddling his second Derby starter, gives first-time Derby jockey Miguel Mena a leg up.


19. Homeboykris (50-1)

Pedigree: Roman Ruler x One Last Salute, by Salutely

Lifetime record: 6-2-1-0. Second in an allowance on Feb. 27.

Pros: Won the Grade I Champagne at Belmont last October.

Cons: Hasn't won since and was soundly beaten in his two other stakes tries. Coming off a layoff of over two months.

Connections: Rick Dutrow, who won the 2008 Derby and Preakness with Big Brown, gives a leg up to Ramon Dominguez, NYRA's leading rider. The gelding's ownership group includes Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre.


20. Sidney's Candy (5-1)

Pedigree: Candy Ride x Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat

Lifetime record: 6-4-1-0. Won the Santa Anita Derby on April 3.

Pros: Consistent colt is a perfect 3-for-3 this year, all in stakes company, and looked good winning the Santa Anita Derby on the front end. Has trained superbly at Churchill Downs.

Cons: Will be making his first start outside of California and his first start on dirt. Drawing the extreme outside means he could get hooked wide around the first turn. With plenty of other horses figuring to join him on the front end, he won't get the easy trip he had last out.

Connections: The young Joe Talamo makes his Derby derbut after having the favorite scratched out from under him on the morning of the race last year. Sadler's trainee is owned by Sid and Jenny Craig, whose silks feature caricatures of a fat horse and a skinny horse.


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